Seize Champions: Seven Funds That Earned Their Preserve

The COVID pandemic took maintain six years in the past this month. It ushered in an nearly unimaginable array of social, company (WFH, anyone?), and monetary modifications. Work shifted on-line, provide chains frayed (bathroom paper received hoarded?) and re‑fashioned, and shoppers rewired lengthy‑standing habits, spending extra on items, providers, and digital experiences than ever earlier than. Governments and central banks flooded the system with stimulus and simple cash, lifting asset costs (usually within the lowest high quality belongings) throughout the board. Coupled with the shocks brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the zero-rate world confronted a subsequent wave of inflation and tightening. All of that reshuffled which sectors, kinds, and methods thrived or faltered, setting the stage for a really totally different form of danger‑adjusted efficiency in mutual funds over the previous six years.

Who finest served you through the tumult? The shortest reply is, “the supervisor you managed to stay with by means of thick and skinny.”

One attribute of such managers is that they compensated you more-than-fairly for the danger they requested you to bear. We determined to see who is perhaps on the brief checklist of your most devoted monetary servants by taking a look at which home and international fairness managers attained the best seize ratios through the turmoil.

What are seize ratios?

Seize ratios supply a partial reply to the query: Are we getting paid for the dangers (effectively, volatility) that we’re requested to endure? Typically, the reply is “sure” for a fund with a seize ratio larger than one. You get above 1.0 if the fraction of an index’s upside you seize is bigger than the fraction of its draw back that you simply do.

Seize 60% of the S&P500’s good points and solely 30% of their losses? Seize ratio is 2. (60/30).  Seize 90% of the good points and 45% of the losses? Seize ratio is 2. Seize 2% of the good points and 1% of the losses? Seize ratio is 2. Grabbed 200% of the good points and 100% of the losses?  Seize ratio is … effectively, you get it. 

Seize ratios do not robotically measure danger; they measure whether or not you’re well-paid for the dangers you are taking. A excessive volatility fund and a low volatility fund can have similar seize ratios however different elementary variations. As such, understanding {that a} fund has a constructive seize ratio is simply Step One in assessing its attractiveness.

However because you’ve received to take Step One earlier than any of the others, we screened MFO Premium for the home and international fairness funds with the best seize ratio, relative to the S&P 500, since March 2020. Which means we’re taking a look at a time span that included a worldwide pandemic, a number of crashes, electoral howling, insurance policies in a single route, and the eradication of those self same insurance policies just a few years later. Which is to say, they’ve seen loads in a brief interval. 

Why solely home and international fairness? Why the S&P 500? A metric is dependable provided that it’s measuring two logically associated phenomena. Keep in mind the robust correlation between skirt lengths and the Dow Jones common? (Wager you don’t keep in mind the .99 correlation between the manufacturing of butter in Bangladesh + international dairy herd measurement with the S&P500 from 1983-1993.) There was a statistical relationship however no significant connection; it’s known as a “spurious correlation.”

Because the S&P500 (or its clones) is the fairness default in most US portfolios, we needed to have a look at the classes extra intently similar to it.

We screened for home and international funds and ETFs, diversified not sector, with six-year seize ratios of 1.4 or higher (the best selectable MFO Premium setting). That generated an inventory of simply 12 funds, seven of which we will commend to you with a straight face. We’ll clarify the opposite 5 on the finish of this story.

The Seize Champions, 2020 – current

Supply: Lipper International knowledge feed and MFO Premium

How do you learn that desk? We’ll stroll by means of row one. Palm Valley Capital Fund is classed by Lipper as a small-cap development fund. Over the previous six years, it returned 7.7% yearly with the best seize ratio of any fund: 4.0. It achieved that ratio by capturing 26% of the S&P 500 upside and 6% of its draw back, which the system rendered as a 4:1 ratio. (The easy math implied a seize of 4.3, however the report was 4.0, and I’m not quibbling.) The fund’s Sharpe ratio, an alternate measure of risk-adjusted efficiency, was 1.0, about seven occasions increased than the S&P 500’s for a similar interval. The blue field alerts that it earned MFO’s “Nice Owl” designation to constantly top-tier risk-adjusted returns.

One discovering jumps out: Nobody who performs the S&P 500’s sport – massive cap shares – reached the winner’s circle. It’s simply extremely laborious to separate your self from the herd when investing in US massive caps, apart from by taking silly dangers.

Past that, there was a substantial range among the many winners: small and enormous, home and international, development and worth. (And one ETF.) The frequent traits: the portfolios are usually concentrated, energetic share tends to be terribly excessive, and turnover tends to be low. At base, excessive conviction managers who’re comparatively tired of what right now’s market passions are.

Who’re these guys?

Palm Valley Capital: Managers Eric Cinnamond and Jayme Wiggins follow a inflexible self-discipline Mr. Cinnamond has adopted since 1998: purchase high quality shares, and provided that they’re priced for wholesome returns with a considerable margin of security. The technical time period is “absolute-return investing.” The sensible implication in a market whose Shiller 10-year CAPE is on the third-highest stage in historical past: only a few shares meet the standards, so that you personal only a few.

The fund has been considerably in money since inception, ready for the form of small-cap worth dislocation that final appeared through the COVID panic (when the fund briefly reached 50% invested) or the 2008-09 disaster (when the predecessor fund went to 100%). Cinnamond has navigated three asset bubbles since 1998. Throughout the tech bubble, small-cap worth remained enticing, and the technique was largely invested. The housing bubble was broader, requiring additional cash, however it will definitely created alternative in 2009. This cycle, which Cinnamond calls “the every thing bubble,” has been probably the most difficult: “overvaluation has been way more widespread…and our alternative set hasn’t been nice.” He attributes this partly to systematic steadiness sheet deterioration throughout small caps pushed by low charges and development stress: “There have been so many robust steadiness sheets in 1999…in some unspecified time in the future liquidity shall be treasured.”

Administration experiences incomes 18.5% annualized on invested positions since inception, however acknowledges that “the principle occasion has not occurred since Palm Valley has existed.” It is a fund for affected person buyers who share administration’s conviction that valuation self-discipline finally pays off — and who can tolerate alternative price within the meantime. As one member of the dialogue board famous, this fund could be acknowledged as a celebrity if it have been categorised as a conservative allocation fund.

We disagree with Lipper’s categorization of the fund as “small development.” It’s not of their DNA or of their portfolio: Morningstar tracks them as deep-value micro-cap, and that appears about proper. To right for that, we screened MFO Premium for the six-year efficiency of all small-value and small-growth funds. Palm Valley’s annual return – 7.7% – ranked it 251st of 292 funds, pushed by an fairness publicity usually within the teenagers and ultra-low returns on its substantial money stash. However as soon as we change to risk-adjusted returns, the image flips. The fund is #1 for seize ratio, #2 for Sharpe ratio, #1 by a mile for Ulcer Index, and #1 by a mile for optimum drawdown.

Usually small- to microcap worth. Presently 23% equities, 32% bonds, 45% money; 21 whole inventory positions. MFO Nice Owl, three-star score, energetic share of 100, $220M AUM.

Cambria Worth and Momentum ETF: a quant fund overseen by Meb Faber and Jonathan Keetz that actively manages a portfolio of U.S. equities tilted towards worth‑ and momentum‑associated elements, whereas utilizing S&P 500 index futures to hedge volatility. Combining worth and momentum shouldn’t be merely a advertising and marketing flourish: empirical analysis reveals that worth shares are likely to outperform over the long run, whereas momentum helps seize winners and keep away from worth traps, enhancing danger‑adjusted returns. The concept has been validated in follow by energetic managers such because the American Century international worth fairness staff, which blends worth screening with momentum‑based mostly inventory choice throughout a number of funds. The important thing distinction is that Cambria implements this method in a guidelines‑based mostly, issue‑pushed method, whereas American Century depends on elementary evaluation. The Cambria technique struggled badly from 2016 to 2020, trailing 80–100% of its friends in every year, however has rebounded with 4 robust years and two comparatively weak ones since then. On a 5‑12 months foundation, Morningstar ranks it forward of 89% of its friends. It holds about 100 shares, carries a 3‑star score, and has roughly $80 million in belongings underneath administration.

Kopernik International All-Cap: Managers David Iben (and co-manager Allisa Corcoran) search for firms positioned all through the world, together with rising and frontier markets, that are buying and selling at a major low cost to their risk-adjusted intrinsic values. They consider “that market inefficiencies current quite a few alternatives to determine high quality companies that we consider are mispriced. The Agency makes use of bottom-up elementary evaluation to realize an intensive understanding of an organization’s enterprise and valuation.”

Kopernik’s contrarian bent runs deep. Whereas most buyers chase AI mania and speculative development tales, Iben’s staff takes an extended view, arguing that “buyers routinely overpay for the thrilling lottery ticket prospects of speculative, junky enterprise fashions whereas neglecting the tangible however boring attributes of High quality.” Their September 2025 commentary drew parallels between right now’s markets and the Nineteen Twenties, warning that when “margin debt has surged” and “extremely leveraged ETFs promising as much as 5 occasions the returns” proliferate, historical past suggests warning. The staff explicitly positions itself in opposition to herd habits: “investing is an incredible duty that requires cautious thought and diligent administration…investing is one thing to be taken significantly, not speculatively.”

They’ve achieved a very good job: over the previous six years, they’ve had the best Sharpe ratio of any international small/midcap fund, the fourth-highest whole return, and the fourth-smallest drawdown of any of the 41 funds in its peer group. The technique is embodied in separate accounts with a $25 million minimal, a non-public fund with a $1 million minimal, UCITS … and this fund. 133 shares, five-star score, energetic share of 99, $2.3 billion AUM within the fund, and $9.2 billion within the agency.

Vanguard International Capital Cycles Fund: Supervisor Keith White of Wellington Administration took over the fund in 2018. Morningstar’s robotic professes that the technique “evokes confidence,” apparently as a result of the mix of high-quality shares and excessive volatility shares appears like, you recognize, heat socks freely out of the dryer to their AI. (sigh)

Vanguard’s description is extra helpful: “This fund appears to be like for alternatives arising from altering investor sentiment ensuing from cycles of under- and over-investment in capital-intensive industries. No less than 25% of the fund shall be invested in valuable metals and mining securities. It additionally focuses on alternatives to spend money on firms with scarce, high-quality infrastructure belongings.” That positioning paid off spectacularly within the 12 months ending January 2026, when the fund returned 75.4%, crushing each its benchmark (40.1%) and the MSCI ACWI (21.9%). Over ten years, the fund has delivered 16.4% annualized returns versus 12.8% for the MSCI ACWI. Vanguard’s annual report provides one-third of a web page noting that “9 of the Fund’s 11 trade sectors outperformed.” The fund deserves higher commentary than it will get. 78 shares, MFO Nice Owl, five-star score, energetic share of 95, $4.1B AUM.

Aegis Worth: Supervisor Scott Barbee appears to be like to construct “a concentrated, well-researched portfolio of out-of-favor, small-cap shares buying and selling at a fraction of their intrinsic worth.” In case the implication confuses you, they make clear by asserting themselves on the prime of their homepage as “A Small-Cap Deep Worth Fund.”

The self-discipline is unapologetically contrarian. Barbee frames his positioning as a hedge in opposition to “inflationary foreign money debasement” and greenback weak point, favoring laborious belongings — power, supplies, valuable metals — over richly valued development shares. Presently, the portfolio is overwhelmingly tilted towards supplies and power (92% mixed) and foreign-domiciled shares (85%), with main focus in small Canadian power and mining firms. The fund’s shares commerce “at one of many widest reductions to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book worth foundation within the Fund’s historical past” (2025 shareholder letter). This positioning can produce spectacular returns when the unloved turns into beloved (2025’s 67% acquire mirrored valuable metals and power energy) and brutal drawdowns when speculative development dominates. Barbee has navigated this volatility for 27 years; over that span, the fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 388 foundation factors yearly.

Alignment issues: Aegis staff and their households personal in extra of $100 million in Fund shares — roughly 8-10% of the fund. When Barbee writes about affected person capital and profession danger, he’s describing his personal portfolio alongside yours. 78 shares, low turnover, MFO Nice Owl, five-star fund, energetic share of 100, $1.2B AUM.

Towpath Focus Fund: Mark began at Oak Associates, was a star supervisor, rose to be co-CIO together with his father (who co-founded the agency), walked away from an possession stake forward of the transition, then determined to launch his personal agency and fund. He’s had a form of mental journey over the previous twenty years—development supervisor to high quality devotee—that displays hard-won classes: firm development charges, Mark explains, are (1) fleeting, (2) negatively correlated with future returns, and (3) inferior to high quality as a predictor of long-term compounding. The fund seeks “robust, sturdy companies buying and selling at enticing valuations” and holds them. Mark’s edge: a willingness to be a long-term investor in a market whose consideration span has develop into gnat-like.

Given Mark’s quiet reserve, I might additionally think about the chance that, in terms of advertising and marketing, he channels his internal George H. W. Bush: “I don’t like broccoli. And I haven’t preferred it since I used to be somewhat child, and my mom made me eat it. And I’m President of the US, and I’m not going to eat any extra broccoli!”

The fund stays tiny at its sixth anniversary with primarily no advertising and marketing effort. Mark frames it as a trade-off: each minute spent on investor roadshows is a minute not spent defending buyers. At $70 million, the fund is self-supporting, and he’s “comfy.”

The efficiency document suggests Towpath qualifies as “the most effective fund you’ve by no means heard of.” The fund has outperformed its Morningstar large-value peer group yearly since launch and overwhelmed each the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 since inception, with decrease volatility. In Lipper’s multi-cap worth universe of 271 funds, Towpath ranks #4 for whole return, #2 for Sharpe ratio, and #1 for Ulcer Index over six years—roughly prime 1% in each uncooked and risk-adjusted efficiency.

The portfolio tends to dwell within the largely US large-cap worth house. 35 shares, very low turnover, MFO Nice Owl, five-star fund, energetic share of 88, $68M in AUM.

Ave Maria Worth Targeted (previously Schwartz Worth Targeted Fund): the one socially screened fund right here, the Ave Maria funds embody the “core values and teachings of the Roman Catholic Church.” The managers, George Schwartz (since 1983) and Tim Schwartz (since 2008), “search for firms whose market costs are under what a company or entrepreneurial purchaser could be keen to pay for the whole enterprise. They intend to carry securities for a mean of three to five years underneath regular market circumstances.” 28 shares, five-star fund, energetic share of 97, $110M AUM.

What about the opposite 5 funds you talked about?

Good catch. One of many different 5 was a “buffer” fund with an October rollover: Innovator US Fairness Energy Buffer ETF – October. Because the technique is opaque and apparently the opposite 11 months didn’t qualify, I didn’t suppose it was value pursuing. 

That leaves 4 funds, all from the identical supervisor, that we’re intentionally excluding regardless of their robust seize ratios. The ultimate 4 lacking funds have been all Horizons Kinetics funds. Horizons Kinetics is known for betting the ranch on a single inventory: Texas Pacific Land Firm. MFO’s Devesh Shah first broke the story (which was later picked up by Morningstar, with no reference to the truth that we received there first) in November 2022: Kinetics Mutual Funds: 5 Star funds with a Lone Star Danger.  At present, each fund with 25% or extra of its portfolio invested in Texas Pacific Land comes from the identical household:

In line with WhaleWisdom.com, based mostly on 13F recordsdata, 40.14% of Horizon Kinetics’ whole belongings are invested on this one inventory. Its second-largest maintain, at 13.05%, is the Grayscale Bitcoin Belief. This has carried out brilliantly for them and would possibly proceed to take action. However I couldn’t sleep peacefully understanding anybody selected a fund as a result of we talked about it, then found 40% of the supervisor’s belongings have been in a single inventory. So we’re leaving these within the ‘you’re all grown-ups’ class.

Backside Line

We dwell in … umm, attention-grabbing occasions. Our greatest advice within the face of potential monetary regime change, inflation, warfare, rate of interest spikes, p/e compression is to do as little as doable. And to the extent you do something, think about funds or ETFs whose managers have demonstrably managed by means of good occasions and unhealthy, whose cash is within the fund with you, whose impulses are contrarian, whose preferences are high quality + worth, and whose writing is evident sufficient which you can nod, suppose “I get it,” and sleep effectively. There’s nobody measure of such funds. Understanding their seize ratio, although, is an effective first step.

By the use of disclosure, Snowball owns shares of Palm Valley Capital and Aegis Worth and will simply think about including Towpath Focus. MFO, in fact, has no monetary relationships with any of them.