Two of the best economists who ever lived, Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes, thought they might predict the long run and make a killing on the inventory market. Each of them didn’t see the Wall Avenue crash, the best monetary catastrophe of the age – and arguably, of any age. But having made the identical forecasting error, Fisher and Keynes went on to fulfill very completely different fates. What does it take to see into the long run? And whenever you fail, what does it take to bounce again from wreck?
That includes: Alan Cumming, Russell Tovey, Mircea Monroe, Rufus Wright, Ed Gaughan, and Melanie Gutteridge.
Producers: Ryan Dilley and Marilyn Rust. Sound design/combine/musical composition: Pascal Wyse. Truth checking: Joseph Fridman. Editor: Julia Barton. Recording: Wardour Studios, London. GSI Studios, New York.
Additional studying
Walter Friedman’s The Fortune Tellers is a key supply on Fisher. It’s a historical past of all financial forecasting within the US. I cherished it.
Sylvia Nasar’s wonderful Grand Pursuit has rather more on each Keynes and Fisher.
There are a number of fantastic journalistic accounts of Keynes’s participation within the Degas public sale. Attempt the BBC, the Wall Avenue Journal, or Historical past In the present day.
On Keynes, the central supply on his funding performances is David Chambers and Elroy Dimson. 2013. “Retrospectives: John Maynard Keynes, Funding Innovator.” Journal of Financial Views, 27 (3): 213-28.DOI: 10.1257/jep.27.3.213. There’s extra biographical element within the extra casual Keynes’s Manner To Wealth by John Wasik.
Philip Tetlock’s authentic examine is detailed in his delicate, scholarly and ground-breaking Knowledgeable Political Judgment. His newer e-book with Dan Gardner, Superforecasting is extra journalistic and covers his current discoveries. Each books are superb, however fairly completely different in fashion.
The case of Dorothy Martin and the UFO cult is informed first hand by Festinger and his colleagues in When Prophecy Fails. There’s additional dialogue in Errors Had been Made (However Not By Me), a wonderful information to all of the methods through which we are able to miss out on we’re flawed, by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson.
