Retail gross sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion in February, dragged down by a pointy drop at auto sellers and continued weak point in housing-related classes.
It’s the second straight month-to-month drop and caps off a sluggish first quarter for Canadian shoppers.
The most important hit got here from motorcar and elements sellers, the place gross sales tumbled 2.6%. All 4 retailer varieties within the class had been down, with new automotive sellers posting a 3.0% drop.
In the meantime, core retail gross sales—which strip out gasoline and auto-related purchases—rose a modest 0.5%, buoyed by grocery and liquor retailer gross sales. In quantity phrases, retail gross sales additionally declined by 0.4%.
Seven provinces recorded month-to-month declines, with Quebec (-0.9%) and Nova Scotia (-2.6%) main the way in which. Manitoba stood out with a 1.8% acquire, due to increased car gross sales.
E-commerce gross sales additionally dipped barely, down 0.3% to $4.3 billion, representing 6.3% of all retail commerce.
What this implies for future charge cuts
Whereas February’s knowledge present ongoing client fatigue, March might look quickly higher. StatCan’s early estimate suggests gross sales rebounded by 0.7% final month—probably boosted by Canadians dashing to purchase big-ticket objects earlier than new tariffs kicked in.
However economists from BMO and CIBC agree that the bounce isn’t prone to final.
This “is a glance within the rearview mirror at this level,” BMO’s Shelly Kaushik wrote, noting that client sentiment has since taken a success from the continued commerce battle.
CIBC’s Katherine Choose agreed, pointing to rising uncertainty and indicators that job losses might begin mounting—components that might preserve customers on the sidelines heading into spring.
Choose mentioned the Financial institution of Canada ought to have “sufficient proof of GDP weak point by the
June assembly to chop charges by 25bps.”
That’s according to what the Financial institution of Canada has heard from shoppers immediately. Its newest Canadian Survey of Shopper Expectations reveals households are as anxious concerning the financial system now as they had been throughout the peak of the pandemic.
OIS market pricing at the moment places the percentages of a 25-basis-point charge reduce at roughly 66% for the Financial institution’s June 4 assembly, which might convey its coverage charge all the way down to 2.50%.
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Final modified: April 25, 2025
