For a lot of the postwar period, the reply to the query “the place do I park my cash when the world will get scary?” was easy—the U.S. greenback. Extra particularly, you could possibly inform a nervous shopper to place their cash into short-term (one-year Treasurys), which have been all the time liquid, deep, and backed by the world’s most credible central financial institution. However these days, that answer has been questioned.Â
Because the begin of the second Donald Trump presidency in 2025, the greenback has misplaced greater than 10% of its worth in opposition to different main currencies. Tariffs, slowing development, stagnant hiring, and three Fed charge cuts have all weighed down the buck. Certain, we noticed a quick rally within the U.S. greenback on the outset of the Iran battle. That was attributable to basic safe-haven flows and a petrodollar bid as oil costs jumped to over $100 per barrel. However that bump has light. Morgan Stanley, amongst others, argue that the greenback is not a dependable retailer of worth.Â
What’s a Retailer of Worth, Actually?
As most of you recognize, a retailer of worth is an asset, commodity, or foreign money that may be saved, retrieved, and exchanged sooner or later with out its worth deteriorating. Curiosity-bearing belongings like U.S. Treasurys are a superb instance as a result of they usually retain their worth whereas producing revenue. No asset is extra liquid than the U.S. greenback, however a ten% drop in buying energy over the previous 12 months shouldn’t be what savers signed up for. The greenback stays the world’s reserve foreign money, however your risk-averse purchasers may have to contemplate alternate options to allow them to sleep at evening (see under).Â
Gold: This 12 months’s Quiet Winner
Take gold. This extensively held treasured metallic is up roughly 46% for the 12 months as we go to press and up greater than 150% over the previous 5 years, practically doubling the beneficial properties of the S&P 500 over a comparable interval. The mechanics are simple. Gold, oil, and copper are priced in {dollars}. When the greenback weakens, it takes extra {dollars} to purchase the identical ounce or barrel. That inverse relationship is actual, persistent, and the rationale central banks have been shopping for bullion at a document tempo. For purchasers who desire a foreign money hedge slightly than a development wager, bodily gold has actually earned a seat on the desk.
Bitcoin: Not the Hedge its Champions DeclareÂ
From 2022 by 2024, gold and Bitcoin moved in sync, and the crypto evangelists declared digital gold had arrived. That correlation broke in early 2025, nonetheless. Bitcoin is now down roughly 25% over the previous 12 months and practically 40% from its October 2025 peak. When geopolitical stress hit, gold grew to become the fallback, and Bitcoin whales offered off in a falling market. Bitcoin’s 21-million most provide story stays intellectually clear, however in follow, I’ve discovered that Bitcoin trades like a high-beta tech inventory. Below stress, it has not confirmed to be a secure haven for cash. Bitcoin might finally emerge as a steady retailer of worth, however for many purchasers, hold their allocation restricted to the hypothesis bucket.Â
The place Else Can Cash Disguise?
A weak greenback rewards a particular set of belongings:
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Commodities — gold first, however don’t overlook oil, copper, and agricultural merchandise. All of them profit from the identical greenback profile.
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Defensive equities — shares of healthcare, utilities, and client staples corporations that challenge constant dividends will climate foreign money stress higher than cyclical shares will.
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Worldwide shares — when the greenback falls, international earnings translate into extra {dollars} for traders. Developed markets with appreciating currencies typically outperform dollar-based securities.
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Actual belongings — income-producing business actual property and agricultural land are tangible, inflation-linked belongings, and aren’t affected by adjustments within the US Greenback index (DXY).
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Foreign exchange — the Swiss franc, yen, and Norwegian krone are basic laborious currencies for rent. Selective rising market publicity (peso, rupee, and so forth.,) can add yield however may even add volatility.
Brief-duration Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are one other potential hedge. TIPS are dollar-denominated, however the inflation accrual offers purchasers one thing that the nominal Treasury can not present — actual returns. One other technique to contemplate is investing in a long-term Treasury bond fund akin to TLT, ZROZ or EDV. They’re usually priced at a 15% low cost to par. A modest 1% lower in rates of interest will improve their worth to $110 per share.
Worth Shops for Retirement-Age Shoppers
For retirees and near-retirees, the purpose is to not chase the best-performing asset of 2026; it’s to make sure no single foreign money or asset class derails the plan. If risk-averse purchasers imagine that the 60/40 portfolio is not a secure harbor for conservative traders, an inexpensive framework for a low-to-moderate danger tolerance is likely to be:
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Equities: 40%–50%, with roughly one-third of that quantity in worldwide developed markets and a small EM sleeve.
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Fastened revenue: 30%–35%, laddered bonds, with a significant TIPS allocation and a few short-duration high-quality credit score.
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Money and equivalents: 5%–10% — sufficient for liquidity, however not sufficient to bleed buying energy.
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Actual belongings (REITs, infrastructure, farmland funds): 5%–10%.
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Gold: 5%–8% as a real foreign money hedge, ideally bodily or a fully-backed ETF.
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Crypto: 0%–2%, and just for purchasers who can soak up a 50% drawdown with out altering their habits.
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Personal Credit score – For individuals who have checked out this asset class, there may be nonetheless important revenue worth with nominal default danger.
Nonetheless, as I defined earlier this 12 months, Don’t Write Off the 60/40 Portfolio Simply But. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reviews of its demise are vastly exaggerated. The identical might be stated of the greenback. The buck is not dying. However the period when you could possibly maintain money and name your self “conservative” is likely to be over. Being conservative now means having a diversified cross-section of currencies, throughout asset lessons and throughout the assumptions that anybody authorities can change in a single day. This can be a dialog value having with purchasers who’re interest-rate-sensitive and anxious that their “conservative” portfolio is dropping worth.
Will Rogers Jr. might have stated it greatest through the Nice Melancholy: “I am not a lot involved in regards to the return on my cash as I’m in regards to the return of my cash.” That sentiment nonetheless holds at this time.
